Context: The recent conflict between Israel and Palestine, particularly the escalation since October 7, 2023, has significantly impacted U.S. foreign policy. Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. aimed to promote Arab-Israel normalization but became embroiled in a conflict that has severely strained its diplomatic influence in West Asia. With Donald Trump’s likely return to the presidency, he will inherit a region in turmoil, facing complex challenges in an area traditionally within the U.S. sphere of influence.
Trump’s Track Record in West Asia:
- Pro-Israel Stance: Donald Trump’s first term was marked by strong support for Israel. Key decisions included moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, and withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal.
- Abraham Accords: Trump’s administration brokered the Abraham Accords, which aimed to establish stronger ties between Israel and several Arab nations, focusing on a united front against Iran.
Trump’s foreign policy in West Asia was thus marked by alignment with Israeli interests and a disregard for broader Palestinian issues, aiming instead to curb Iranian influence in the region.
Key Challenges Ahead for Trump:
Managing U.S. Involvement without Deepening the Conflict:
- Trump’s base is averse to prolonged U.S. military engagements in West Asia, a sentiment echoed by Vice-President-elect J.D. Vance. An extensive regional war would contradict his promises to focus on domestic issues and shift foreign policy focus towards China.
- A larger conflict involving Iran, a significant player in West Asia, could also impact oil prices, creating further economic strain due to energy market instability.
Balancing Support for Israel with Diplomatic Needs:
- While Trump has shown unwavering support for Israel, an uncontrolled escalation involving Lebanon, Iran, or other states could drag the U.S. deeper into West Asia, straining resources and distracting from other foreign policy goals.
- There is a need to carefully navigate U.S. assistance and avoid being seen as complicit in actions labeled as disproportionate or excessive, which has already drawn international criticism under Biden.
Strategic Priorities for Trump’s Policy in West Asia:
- Focus on De-escalation: To restore stability, Trump may need to advocate for a resolution to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Without managing the intensity of Israeli operations, the region risks a deeper slide into chaos, which would further damage U.S. influence.
- Potential Shift in Diplomacy: Trump could build on the Abraham Accords but with an added focus on involving Palestinian stakeholders, recognizing that ignoring the Palestine issue has only pushed the conflict further into crisis.
- Re-assessing Iran Policy: Trump’s administration may prioritize a cautious approach to Iran, avoiding overt confrontations while seeking to secure U.S. interests in West Asia without undermining stability in other regions.
Conclusion: As Donald Trump potentially returns to power, he faces the immediate task of addressing an unstable West Asia. Balancing support for Israel with the need to prevent a wider regional conflict will be crucial. A strategic, carefully balanced approach—prioritizing de-escalation and selective involvement—may allow the Trump administration to avoid the pitfalls of prolonged wars while restoring U.S. standing in the region. If his administration follows the trajectory of Biden’s policies without adjustments, however, West Asia risks further destabilization, impacting both regional allies and U.S. interests.
