ASEAN Centrality in Peril: Navigating Power Rivalries, Tariff Wars, and Strategic Polarization in the Indo-Pacific

The foundation of Southeast Asia’s regional diplomacy, ASEAN Centrality, is confronting previously unheard-of difficulties in the face of the Indo-Pacific’s changing geopolitical landscape. ASEAN’s function as a neutral anchor in regional architecture is being undermined as the region is drawn into conflicting strategic alignments as great power rivalries, especially those between the United States and China, heat up. The power of ASEAN-led platforms like the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum is also in danger of being diminished by the growth of protectionist trade policies, tariff wars, and exclusive security and economic blocs like AUKUS, QUAD, and IPEF.

About ‘ASEAN Centrality’

It is predicated on the idea that “the evolving regional architecture of the Indo-Pacific” should be led by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN.

• It arose against the backdrop of the Soviet Union’s collapse, when regional nations were gripped by a great deal of uncertainty about the US’s diminished military presence in the area, the potential remilitarization of Japan, the emergence of China, and other security concerns.
• Additionally, India’s prime minister’s 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue vision for a free, open, and resilient Indo-Pacific has stressed it.

Risks to ‘ASEAN Centrality’

Could split ASEAN because of members’ differing ties to Beijing and Washington, making collaboration on ASEAN-based platforms challenging.

• ASEAN-centered, cooperative forums like the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) have been weakened by the US-China Cold War.
• In addition to creating tensions and causing division among ASEAN countries regarding trade remedies, tariffs are undermining the international trading system on which ASEAN depends.

Mains: 

Question: Evaluate the impact of emerging minilateral groupings like QUAD, AUKUS, and IPEF on ASEAN Centrality. To what extent do these groupings complement or compete with ASEAN’s vision for a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific?

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MCQs:

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Question: Consider the following statements regarding ASEAN Centrality:

1. It emerged in the post-Cold War era, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
2. It assumes that ASEAN should take the lead in shaping the evolving regional architecture of the Indo-Pacific.
3. The concept was first officially articulated by India at the 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

1. 1 and 2 only
2. 2 and 3 only
3. 1 and 3 only
4. 1, 2 and 3

Answer: A

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