Historical Context
- Complex Relationship: The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have had a complex relationship for the past eight decades.
- Significant Events: Key events include the 1973 oil embargo and the 2018 assassination of Jamal Khashoggi.
Symbolic Images:
- 1945 meeting between U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz Al-Saud.
- 2022 fist-bump between U.S. President Joe Biden and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).
The Emerging Strategic Alliance Agreement (SAA)
- Negotiations: The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are negotiating a Strategic Alliance Agreement (SAA).
- Goals: The SAA aims to align Saudi Arabia’s regional ambitions with U.S. diplomatic goals.
- Scope: The agreement will cover bilateral, regional, and global aspects of their relationship.
Bilateral Components
- Defence Pact: The SAA may formalize the alliance into a strategic defence pact, similar to the U.S.-Japan treaty, committing the U.S. to Saudi Arabia’s defence.
- Advanced Technology: The U.S. may provide Saudi Arabia with advanced defence technology, including F-35 stealth fighters and nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
Regional Components
- Middle East Peace: Saudi Arabia aims for a ceasefire in Gaza and progress towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.
- Diplomatic Relations: The U.S. wants Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel and establish full diplomatic relations.
- Foreign Policy: The U.S. seeks to limit Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy engagements with Beijing and Moscow.
Global and Economic Components
- Energy Coordination: Despite reduced U.S. dependence on Saudi oil, both nations aim to coordinate on balancing global energy markets.
- Economic Opportunities: The SAA could secure substantial portions of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 projects for American companies.
Catalysts and Strategic Implications
- China’s Influence: President Xi Jinping’s 2022 visit to Riyadh spurred the U.S. to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia.
- Geopolitical Shift: Saudi recognition of Israel could reshape the geopolitical landscape in West Asia and the broader Islamic world.
Challenges to the SAA
- Trust Deficit: A significant trust deficit has developed due to U.S. ambivalence towards Iran and inconsistent support during regional conflicts.
- Gaza Conflict: The ongoing conflict in Gaza complicates Saudi reconciliation with Israel, essential for U.S. Senate approval of the SAA.
Potential Outcomes and Regional Impact
- Successful SAA: Could reinforce U.S. influence in the Gulf and West Asia, support pro-West regimes, and weaken the Palestinian cause.
- Failed SAA: Might lead to continued regional instability, with non-state actors disrupting equilibrium and external powers vying for influence.
- Partial Agreement: If a comprehensive SAA is unattainable, a partial agreement involving other friendly countries may fill gaps.
India’s Strategic Interests
- Monitoring Developments: India should closely monitor the evolving SAA.
- Enhanced Stability: A successful SAA could enhance regional stability, create economic opportunities, and support the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor.
- Act West Policy: India should continue its “Act West” policy independently, preparing for any changes in the Saudi-Israeli relationship.
Practice Question Q. Discuss the evolution of the U.S.-Saudi Arabia relationship over the past eight decades. Highlight the key events that have shaped this relationship. |